sneed

snappy_rDrama.txt

@@ -4654,3 +4654,11 @@ do i have a sign in front of my house that says dead zigger storage?
 Being French is to exist in a state of barely contained rage. You sit at a cafe, sip a tiny espresso and eat a delicate pastry on your union-mandated 4-hour coffee break, looking as placid and content as can be, but under the surface a seething ocean of emotion boils, ready to destroy Europe for the 4th time in 2 centuries, finally put perfidious Albion and the Eternal Kraut in the dustbin of history where they belong, reconquer the ungrateful Algerian swine, assert Francophone dominance in West Africa, kick the disgusting Anglo Ontarian across the St Laurence and raise the Tricolor above a sea of bayonets you will gleefully shove right up the anus of anyone who says "muh surrender monkey". 
 
 Sometimes the mask slips, but is quickly reaffixed beneath your fruity beret. You finish your coffee, paying exact change with no tip, and secure your baguette to the back of your 49cc moped. You push the starter button, and in your mind the single cylinder buzz is the righteous grumble of a V12 diesel in a Leclerc, crossing the Rhine with Mirage 2000s screaming overhead.
+{[para]}
+One common response when it’s pointed out that you can’t always tell is “well we can tell 99% of the time”, or some other high percentage pulled out of nowhere. This is a clear overestimate of how often someone can tell, but let’s charitably assume that that number is true for a moment and do some maths. If you could tell who was trans or not 99% of the time, that would still lead to nearly two thirds of the people you read as trans actually being cis.
+
+The mathematics is clear, using [Bayes theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem). 
+
+Even if we very charitably assume that the sensitivity and specificity of "we can always tell" in detecting a trans person is  both 98% then they are still *wrong* 50% of the time and accuse a cis person of being trans. 
+
+This is because there are vastly more cisgender than transgender people.